According to the results of January-September 2019, the bank's net profit amounted to UAH 244.4 million, which is 31.3 % more than in the same period of 2018

06.11.2019

Pivdenny Bank analysts have prepared a brief overview of the main trends in the Ukrainian economy for October 2019

In September, the fall in the industry slowed down slightly – from -1.7 % y/y in August to 1.1 % y/y. In general, most industries (except the food, pharmaceutical and chemical industries) have shown a drop. However, investment demand was high against the backdrop of positive business expectations, which was reflected in the high growth rate of construction of engineering structures (19.4 % y/y) and as a consequence – on construction as a whole (+12.2 % y/y).

In September, nominal wage growth accelerated to 18.2 % y/y from 17.4 % y/y, which, against a backdrop of positive inflation, accelerated real wage growth to 9.8 % y/y from 7.7 % y/y. In light of this, as well as improving consumer sentiment, consumer demand remained high. As a result, retail sales also maintained high growth rates (+8.6 % y/y in September).

Inflation decelerated significantly (down to 7.5 % y/y from 8.8 % y/y in the previous month) as it approached the NBU target corridor. Against this background, and also due to the positive dynamics of the foreign exchange market, the regulator continues the cycle of monetary easing, reducing the discount rate in October by 1 percentage point – up to 15.50 %.

In September, the current account deficit widened significantly (from USD 0.4 billion in August to USD 1.1 billion) amid large coupon payments on Eurobonds. At the same time, high yields and more even gas purchases this year have helped reduce trade deficits. Overall, the financial account surplus fully covered the current account deficit. Thus, the redemption of Eurobonds was offset by the purchase of domestic government loan bonds by non-residents, and the inflow of funds into the financial account was provided by the real sector (growth of trade credits and placement of Eurobonds of Mironivsky Khleboproduct and Ukrzaliznytsya). Despite a balanced balance of payments, gold and foreign currency reserves fell by USD 0.6 billion in September (down to USD 21.4 billion) due to large payments to the International Monetary Fund. However, they remain at a fairly high level and cover 3.4 months of future imports.


Detailed macroeconomic reports can be found at link.