“Banking System Has High Appetite for Business Lending, but Challenges Are Growing,” – Maksym Tsymbal

The year 2025 became a record year for business lending in Ukraine. The banking system demonstrated the highest growth rates of the corporate loan portfolio over the past decade, while in absolute terms the business loan portfolio increased by UAH 180 billion. This growth occurred without deterioration in asset quality – credit risk indicators also remain at one of the best levels. This was stated by Maksym Tsymbal, First Deputy Chairman of the Management Board of Pivdenny Bank, during the NV forum “Ukraine and the World Ahead – 2026”.

For Pivdenny Bank, 2025 was a period of exceptionally intensive work in business financing. The bank actively entered the lending market back in 2023, without waiting for the end of the war, and over the past two years has been actively financing businesses amid elevated risks. As a result of the first 11 months of 2025, the bank’s loan portfolio grew by more than 40%, which corresponds to over UAH 10 billion in net growth. “Last year it seemed that this bar was already very high. But now we have managed to demonstrate even greater dynamics – thanks to a strong pace of work and the coordinated efforts of the entire team,” noted Maksym Tsymbal.

Speaking about the year ahead, he emphasized that the bank’s strategic focus remains unchanged: lending to medium and large businesses with a priority given to medium-sized enterprises as the foundation of economic recovery. At the same time, the bank is beginning to take a more systematic approach to scaling its strengths in a small business segment. Maksym Tsymbal also identified the development of the defense-industrial complex as a particularly promising area. The bank began working with this sector in 2025 and considers it as one of its strategic priorities for 2026.

According to his assessment, the momentum in business lending will continue. Banks’ appetite for financing remains high, and competition in the market allows offering clients some of the most favorable lending conditions seen in the past ten years. At the same time, he does not expect a significant decline in interest rates in 2026. In the foreign currency segment, the room for rate reductions is limited due to reserve requirements, while in hryvnia the outlook for the key policy rate also does not suggest sharp changes. Therefore, interest rates are likely to remain close to current levels.

At the same time, Maksym Tsymbal drew attention to a number of systemic risks that may affect further lending growth. Among them is pressure on the capital of the banking system. After two years of substantial tax burden, systemically important banks actively lending to businesses are beginning to face capital constraints, which is a key resource for growth: “Therefore, a situation may probably arise where the growth rates of business lending slow down until banks are able to include their 2025 profits into capital (May 2026). In addition, the growth of expenses in the banking system is gradually outpacing revenues, and in 2026 the tax rate will again be 50%, which will also affect the ability to actively build capital for business lending in the future.”

Another challenge remains the structure of liquidity. Despite the generally high liquidity of the system, significant volumes of resources are concentrated in certain clients and banks that do not engage in business lending. At the same time, the total volume of commitments already assumed by banks exceeds UAH 1 trillion – these are undrawn credit lines and investment projects to be implemented in 2026, particularly in the field of energy efficiency and defense. Even partial utilization (20-25%) of these commitments could significantly affect the capacity to finance the launch of new projects.

“Therefore, despite overall optimism and sustained high demand for lending, it is important to realistically assess the capabilities of the banking system. The task for the coming year is to maintain a balance between growth rates, support for the economy, and financial stability,” concluded Maksym Tsymbal.